What Is Kalshi? How the Prediction Market Works

Prediction-Market Infrastructure

What is Kalshi and how it works

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Kalshi is a U.S. exchange where people trade contracts on the outcome of real-world events. Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and nothing if it doesn't.

  • Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi says it became the first U.S. exchange built for event contracts to be designated a contract market by the CFTC, in 2020.

  • Kalshi earns money from a small fee on each trade, and its contracts clear through an affiliated clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear.

  • You can fund Kalshi directly, or move money onto it from an EDGE Boost balance in real time, 24/7/365. Fund only what you can afford to risk; deposit controls are available.

The short answer

Kalshi is a prediction market: an exchange that lists contracts on yes-or-no questions about the future, from inflation prints and weather to elections, sports and culture. Traders buy "Yes" or "No" at a price between 1 and 99 cents. When the question resolves, the winning side pays $1 per contract and the losing side pays nothing.

Because the payout is fixed, the price works as a probability. A "Yes" contract at 40 cents means the market, at that moment, puts the outcome at roughly a 40% chance. Kalshi is based in the United States, trades in U.S. dollars, and is one of the two largest prediction markets by trading volume, alongside Polymarket.

Who founded Kalshi, and how did it get here?

Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara met at MIT and went on to work in finance, Mansour at Goldman Sachs and Citadel, Lopes Lara at Bridgewater and Citadel. According to Kalshi's company history, they kept seeing clients pay for complicated bundles of swaps and options just to get exposure to a single event, such as Brexit. There was no way to trade the event itself.

They founded Kalshi in 2018 to fix that. The milestones since:

  • 2018: Kalshi founded

  • 2019: Joins Y Combinator; launches a beta

  • 2020: Designated a contract market by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

  • 2024: Launches election markets following a federal appeals court ruling, and begins clearing through its own affiliated clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear

  • 2026: Raises $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation

Its listed backers include Sequoia Capital, Y Combinator, SV Angel, Charles Schwab and Henry Kravis.

How does Kalshi work?

Every Kalshi market is built around one question with a defined answer and a named resolution source. You pick a side, choose how many contracts to buy, and set either a market order (filled right away at the best available price) or a limit order (filled only at your price or better).

A simple example. A market asks whether the national unemployment rate will come in above 4.5% in next month's jobs report. "Yes" trades at 35 cents and "No" at about 65 cents. You buy 200 "Yes" contracts for $70. If the rate prints above 4.5%, your contracts settle at $200. If it doesn't, they settle at zero.

You can also exit early. If a weak private payrolls report comes out the week before and "Yes" climbs to 55 cents, you can sell your 200 contracts for $110 and walk away without waiting for the official number.

Trades match through an order book. Kalshi isn't taking the other side of your position; another trader is, often a market maker quoting prices on both sides.

What can you trade on Kalshi?

Kalshi's categories include economics, politics and elections, sports, culture, climate and weather, crypto, commodities, financial markets, and tech and science. Sports contracts make up the largest share of volume. Each market has written rules that spell out exactly how and when it resolves, and it pays to read them, because the wording decides edge cases.

Kalshi has also added products beyond single event contracts, including perpetual futures, which it runs through a separate account so funds in one can't affect the other.

How does Kalshi make money?

Kalshi charges a transaction fee on trades, published on its fee schedule. The fee is variable and depends on the contract price, so it is highest near 50 cents and smaller near the extremes. Kalshi says it doesn't earn money from selling order flow. Its affiliated clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear, discloses that it doesn't charge clearing fees.

Watch funding costs too. Fees for moving money onto the exchange depend on the method, and your bank may charge for wires.

How is a Kalshi trade cleared and settled?

When a trade executes, it clears through Kalshi Klear, Kalshi's affiliated clearinghouse. A clearinghouse sits between buyer and seller and guarantees that both sides meet their obligations. Kalshi's contracts are fully collateralized: you pay the full cost of a position up front, and the clearinghouse holds that collateral until the market resolves. There is no margin call on a standard event contract, because the most you can lose is what you paid.

When the event resolves, the winning side's contracts are credited at $1 each and the money lands in your Kalshi balance, ready to trade again or withdraw.

How do you fund a Kalshi account?

Kalshi accepts bank transfers, debit cards and wires, and it connects to bank accounts through Plaid and Aeropay. Each route trades off speed against size. A debit card is quick but capped. A bank transfer handles larger amounts but settles over business days. A wire moves size but only during banking hours.

That last point is the friction. Kalshi trades continuously, including nights, weekends and holidays, when most bank rails stop. A large position that needs funding on a Saturday can't get there by wire until Monday.

EDGE closes that gap. An EDGE Boost account is a special purpose debit account and Visa debit card built for regulated markets. Funding works in two legs:

  • Fund your EDGE Boost balance by linking a personal checking or savings account through Plaid, or by converting crypto to U.S. dollars through Zero Hash. This leg runs on your bank's schedule, so do it ahead of time.

  • Connect Kalshi in the Markets tab using your Kalshi deposit code.

  • Send funds from your EDGE Boost balance to Kalshi. The transfer is real time and runs 24/7/365, up to several millions per day. The minimum send is $100.

Proceeds come back to your EDGE Boost card, which must be active. For the full walkthrough, see EDGE's guides to funding an EDGE account and depositing large amounts on Kalshi, or the EDGE Boost Kalshi page.

Who uses Kalshi?

The user base runs from first-time traders with a few dollars on a weekend game to firms quoting thousands of markets. Individual traders use it to act on a view about news, sports or the economy. Businesses use it to hedge: a contract that pays out if a costly event happens can offset the cost. Market makers supply liquidity on both sides and earn the spread.

For the larger participants, the constraint is rarely the exchange. It is capital: keeping enough money on Kalshi to trade, enough on every other venue they're active on, and moving it between them fast enough to matter.

How is Kalshi different from Polymarket?

Both list event contracts on similar topics. Kalshi is a U.S. exchange that trades in dollars and clears through Kalshi Klear. Polymarket settles trades on blockchain infrastructure and grew first as a global venue. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has invested $2 billion in Polymarket. Many active traders use both, which is exactly where pre-funding two separate balances starts to cost them.

Frequently asked questions

What is Kalshi?

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange for event contracts, where traders buy "Yes" or "No" on real-world questions. Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and nothing if it doesn't, so prices work as probabilities.

How do you make money on Kalshi?

You profit if you buy a contract below $1 and the outcome happens, or if you sell a contract for more than you paid before the market resolves. You lose what you paid if the outcome goes the other way.

What fees does Kalshi charge?

Kalshi charges a variable transaction fee on trades, published on its fee schedule. Its clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear, discloses that it doesn't charge clearing fees. Your bank or card may charge for some funding methods.

How do I deposit money on Kalshi?

Kalshi accepts bank transfers, debit cards and wires. You can also connect Kalshi to an EDGE Boost account and send funds from your EDGE Boost balance to Kalshi in real time, 24/7/365.

Can I deposit on Kalshi on a weekend?

Yes, from a funded EDGE Boost balance. Wires and most bank transfers don't settle on weekends or holidays, but transfers from EDGE Boost to Kalshi are real time and run around the clock.

How much can I move onto Kalshi at once?

Transfers from an EDGE Boost balance to Kalshi run up to several millions per day. Funding the EDGE Boost account from your bank runs on ACH and has its own limits.

A note on trading responsibly

Every position on Kalshi can lose. Set deposit limits, use the controls in your accounts, and never add money to recover a loss.

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© EDGE Markets, Inc. 2026

2810 N Church St
PMB 90957
Wilmington, Delaware 19802-4447 US

© EDGE Markets, Inc. 2026

2810 N Church St
PMB 90957
Wilmington, Delaware
19802-4447 US

© EDGE Markets, Inc. 2026